Diperbarui • 2020-05-06
Bloomberg published an article about a recent study that suggests that the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic largely contributed to shaping the Nazi mentality in the young generations in Germany.
The study was done by the New York Federal Reserve. The authors admit there is no place for direct conclusions, but the correlation seems to be there: cities with most influenza deaths in 1918 which saw little social expenditure form the governments witnessed an increase in their proportion of votes for the Nazi party leaders in Germany.
The study suggests that the main reason for that social change was the disappointment of the people with the actions of their governments, which failed to help them through the pandemic fallout. Feeling resentful to their leaders, they started looking for alternative directions in social policies – which were readily offered by the right-wing politicians.
Basically, those who felt most left out shifted into the right spectrum of political direction. Now, the map below shows the level of happiness among people with the actions of their respective governments.
Source: Bloomberg
This map is based on public polls. Obviously, we have to keep in mind that not all countries grant the liberty to their citizens to express their dissatisfaction with the actions of their governments. So a certain political common sense needs to filter the colors coming from this picture. But still, what we see is that, generally, Americans, Brazilians, Russians, and Turks are utterly unhappy with what their governments did in response to the coronavirus and economic damage caused by it. Therefore, these countries, if we were to continue the logic suggested by the study, may be a ground for a social shift towards the right socio-political spectrum. “What does it mean for the currencies though?” one may ask. It will mean instability.
Specifically for the USD, it will mean instability. Although it is the primary global reserve currency, its positions may be undermined by any shift from a center-balanced political-economic direction of the government. Donald Trump’s views and general direction do not appear exactly center-balanced. Rather, they are protectionist-expansionist. In the strategic horizon, that may be the most dangerous direction for economic development in the US. Numerous fundamental factors, such as the labor market, the government debt, external policies, and many others create an unprecedentedly tensed economic background for the US economic system, which, in general, risks getting overheated. In the meantime, the US President’s actions, internally or externally oriented, do not appear to be exactly cautious. Overall, that creates a potentially dangerous world for the US dollar to exist.
That means, strategically, the undisputed global dominance of the USD may come to end pretty unexpectedly.
That is no bad news for a trader though – as long as you get prepared for such a scenario as well. Let’s stay put and watch the dynamics.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) menguat dari penurunan kemarin dan saat ini diperdagangkan di sekitar level 78,15 pada hari Kamis (29/02/2024). XTIUSD mencoba pulih dan..Sementara OPEC+ yang mempertimbangkan
Harga minyak mentah acuan AS West Texas Intermediate (WTI) masih dalam jalur melanjutkan kenaikan untuk hari ke tujuh secara beruntun, pada Rabu (14/02/2024). Menurut laporan pasar minyak bulanan OPEC, ada kekhawatiran mengenai kepatuhan kelompok ini terhadap pemangkasan produksi
Pasar saham Asia melemah pada perdagangan Selasa (30/01/2024), terseret oleh kasus likuidasi perusahaan raksasa properti China..Kegelisahan investor terhadap meningkatnya ketegangan di Timur Tengah telah mengendalikan sentimen risiko.
Yen Jepang gagal memikat para investor pada perdagangan Selasa (02/04/2024) meski ada peluang atas kemungkinan intervensi dan..Sentimen penghindaran risiko masih berpotensi memberikan kekuatan pada safe-haven
XAUUSD naik ke rekor tertinggi baru pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), di tengah meningkatnya spekulasi penurunan suku bunga..melanjutkan kenaikan kuat minggu lalu hingga membentuk level puncak baru sepanjang masa
Pasar saham Asia sebagian masih libur dan sebagian lagi menguat pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), karena optimisme data pabrikan Tiongkok mendukung..potensi intervensi otoritas Jepang terhadap yen Jepang diperkirakan berada di zona 152 – 155 yen.
FBS menyimpan catatan data Anda untuk menjalankan website ini. Dengan menekan tombol "Setuju", Anda menyetujui kebijakan Privasi kami.
Permintaan Anda diterima.
Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda
Permintaan panggilan balik berikutnya untuk nomor telepon ini
akan tersedia setelah
Jika Anda memiliki masalah mendesak, silakan hubungi kami melalui
Live chat
Internal error. Silahkan coba lagi
Jangan buang waktu Anda – tetap awasi dampak NFP terhadap dolar dan raup profitnya!
|
