2023-08-30 • Actualizada
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August. This move is seen as a strategy to support industrial activities, boost the country's economy, and sustain crude oil imports. The government controls China's clean oil product exports through quota allocations, focusing on meeting domestic demands. China exported 23.99 million metric tons of gasoline, jet fuel, and gasoil in the first seven months of the year, up 76.1% compared to the same period in 2022.
The US Dollar has been prepping for a bearish move for a couple of weeks now, and it seems fully ready to make the move. The resistance trendline, 200-day moving average, and the rally-base-drop supply appear to cause the bearish momentum. In this case, I expect that the bears remain in charge for at least a short while since the price may create a new, lower low.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 102.630
Invalidation: 103.771
XBRUSD, as seen in the chart above, has made an initial reaction from the trendline support. However, the price may slip lower toward the 200-day Moving average to find a much stronger confluence based on the demand zone, 88% Fibonacci retracement level, and the moving average support.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 88.55
Invalidation: 78.45
Like XBRUSD, as we saw earlier, the price action on XTIUSD has also made its initial pull away from the trendline support. However, I find it hard to rely on this move because the current market reaction doesn't take place from an actively interesting confluence area. In that sense, I hope to see the price slink into the highlighted demand zone close to the 200-day moving average for my entry consideration.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 84.59
Invalidation: 74.12
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Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 80.00 con TP1:79.60... Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 80.70 con TP: 81.50...
Escenario Bajista: Ventas por debajo de 78.99 con TP1:77.93, TP2: 77.45 y tras su rompimiento TP3:76.56 y TP4: 75.70. Escenario Alcista: Compras sobre 78.00(esperar pullback a esta zona) con TP1: 1679.00 (POC descubierto*), TP2: 79.33 y TP3: 79.66 en intradía.
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 80.00 con TP1:79.34, TP2: 78.94,TP3: 78.55 y 78.00 Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 78.00 (esperar retroceso hacia zona) con TP:79.34 TP2:80.00 y TP3: 81.00
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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